全球經濟放緩擔憂增 英無協議脫歐概率升
March 25, 2019

美國3月份的製造業指數放緩至21個月新低,加上德國製造業PMI為6年來最差,連帶之前中國數據弱,以及美國聯儲局意外「超級鴿」,同時3個月和10年美債孳息曲線自2007年來首次出現倒掛,加劇投資者對環球經濟增長放緩的憂慮。美股於上周五急跌, 亞太地區亦跟隨大跌。雖然,孳息曲線自2007年年中以來首次倒掛,但孳息率曲線倒掛幅度相當有限,市場預計明年下半年前美國都不會加息。

另一方面,英國下議院議長拒絕批准英國脫歐協議再度交付表決,英國脫歐進程嚴重受阻,歐盟成員國政府對情況表現不耐煩。如果英國下議院在周五前無法通過脫歐協議,將於4月12日再度面臨無協議脫歐或是需申請更長時間的延遲脫歐,但這代表英國需參與5月下旬的歐洲議會選舉,逼使英國內部留歐與脫歐兩派議員表態並作出選擇。有分析預測下議院通過再次修改版脫 歐協議的概率下調至50%,而無協議脫歐概率則升至 15%。


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