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貿易格局反覆,美國債息倒掛
August 19, 2019

中美貿易消息反覆,中美貿易代表通話並約定在兩週內再次通話。同時,美國政府也宣佈了推遲對部份3000億美元的中國進口商品加徵關稅,而就農產品、服裝和鞋類等加徵10%的關稅措施仍將在91日生效,然而,中國表示將對美國新關稅措施採取反制。但是雙方通話令投資者對中美進一步協商寄予期望。

 

另一方面,美國十年期與二年期公債殖利率曲線出現自2007年中以來首次倒掛引發市場對美國經濟衰退的擔憂。據統計,自1978年以來,過去五次美國十年期與二年期公債殖利率曲線出現倒掛至美國經濟陷入衰退,平均約有22個月的緩衝期,並且出現倒掛後的六個月至一年的時間,標普500指數的平均升幅為4%11.6%。因此美國經濟雖下滑,但是短期內不太可能陷入衰退。

本資訊並不構成任何投資邀請或建議。投資涉及風險,閣下投資前應自行尋求獨立及專業顧問的建議。



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