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中美新關稅實施,英國無協議脫歐機會大
September 03, 2019

美國對中國的進口商品加徵15%的關稅措施於91日生效,而中國則對美國的進口商品加徵5%10%的關稅。現階段,中美雙方仍就九月在美磋商進行討論,未知能否如期進行。有分析估計,新關稅的實施將令美國第三和第四季的經濟增長率降至1.8%以及1.7%。經濟下行壓力大,市場預計九月份的聯儲會議將會宣佈減息0.25%,以及在年底前再次減息0.5%~0.75%

 

另一方面,受到中美貿易戰的影響,歐洲大多主要國家的殖利率出現倒掛引發投資者對經濟衰退的擔憂,MSCI歐洲指數八月以來原幣計價下跌1.42%,為三個月以來首次月線收黑。現時,距離英國原定的脫歐時間僅剩兩周的時間,但英國政局的不確定令目前情況陷入僵局。英國首相約翰遜此前一度堅稱,無論英國與歐盟能否達成新的協議,英國都會在1031日正式脫歐。根據目前形勢,有分析認為英國無協議脫歐的可能性更大。

本資訊並不構成任何投資邀請或建議。投資涉及風險,閣下投資前應自行尋求獨立及專業顧問的建議。



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