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美國就業數據疲弱 中國或會實施量化寬鬆
March 11, 2019

經季調後,美國2月新增非農就業人數2萬,遠低於預期的新增就業人數18萬;2月失業率小幅下降至3.8%,這表明僱主在就業市場緊俏情況下可能難以找到僱員。由於就業數據疲弱,導致美元下跌,美國國債收漲,原油期貨下跌,黃金期貨走高,銅期貨下跌。短期內,市場預計美股將維持震盪的局勢,需要繼續留意中美貿易的談判進展以及儲蓄局對後續升息的預期和停止縮表的細節。

另一方面,中國海關總署發怖的數據顯示,2月份出口同比大幅下降20.7%,扭轉了1月份增長9.1%的形勢,有分析認為出口疲弱背後的主要原因是全球經濟放緩而非貿易戰。除此之外,目前中國短期借款利率過低而進一步加大抑制股市泡沫的難度, 令到中國充滿泡沫的股市在過去的一個月上漲了近20%,而長期借款利率過高亦衝擊了民營部門,如果中國經濟繼續停滯不前,不排除將採取美國式的國債購買行動,亦即是採取量化寬鬆的貨幣政策。

本資訊並不構成任何投資邀請或建議。投資涉及風險,閣下投資前應自行尋求獨立及專業顧問的建議。


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